Experts say that the harsh sanctions imposed on Vladimir Putin’s government will lead to rapid poverty for the Russian people, which will add value to the war chosen by its president.
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“Russia, which is not a very wealthy country and does not have much agricultural diversity, is rapidly approaching a food security problem and experiencing rapid demographic poverty, especially among the middle class.”
Sanctions have been piling up for nearly three weeks against Russia and its oligarchy in an attempt to bend Vladimir Putin and end the war he started in Ukraine on February 24.
These measures include closing airspace to Russian aircraft, suspending visas, restricting or banning exports and imports, and freezing and confiscating the assets of more than 700 Russian oligarchs.
According to the report, these sanctions have somehow separated Russia from globalization and broken its supply chain.
“We watched how the ruble is [la monnaie russe] Is falling apart. Severe inflation is estimated here compared to emerging inflation in Russia,” he says.
Indeed, in Canada, annual food inflation reached 6.5% in January 2022, while in Russia it reached 11% by the end of the year, according to the United Nations Food Organization. food and agriculture.
Ability to purchase items
Conclusion: The purchasing power of Russians risks falling sharply as a result of the conflict.
Arthur Silva, an economics professor at Laval University, said Russia’s situation was “dramatic” and the country was going through its worst economic crisis.
“In the next few weeks, in the next few months, the Russian markets should have completely empty shelves. So products that are no longer available, ”he warns.
For his part, Florian Manoris, professor of economics at ESG-UQAM, agrees.
“Although China is somewhat of an alternative to agricultural feed, the EU accounts for nearly 30% of Russia’s imports,” he says.
oil and gas
However, Russian poverty does not happen overnight; Sir, this will be done gradually. Maneris inspected.
“The measures currently taken will greatly destabilize the Russian economy, but they will not stop it, or at least prevent Vladimir Putin from continuing his war effort”, explained the deputy. Internship Center for Research in Analysis of Organizations (CIRANO).
Every day, Russia continues to receive millions of dollars from its oil and gas exports, equivalent to 10% of its GDP, Maneris points out.
According to him, it is obvious that Vladimir Putin can continue his war as long as Russia continues to trade in hydrocarbons.
– Hello with Archumbold, The Journal of Montreal